華許《In Our Time》——傑克森洞年會演說完整整理

物價穩定目標是 2%（以 PCE 物價指數衡量），這是堅定、固定的目標；物價穩定不會自動達成，通膨也不必然均值回歸——把物價穩住是 Fed 的職責。

“The Fed’s price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target… It is the Fed’s job to deliver stable prices.”

65 個月的持續高通膨，責任完全在央行——它就該在那裡。

“The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs.”

我們必須確信基礎通膨正以清楚、足夠的速度朝目標前進。否則，我們有工作要做。

“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

短期利率是達成雙重職責的最主要工具；刺激景氣的非傳統政策或許適用於真正的危機，除此之外應當少用、甚至不用。

“Short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate. Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.”

趨勢最重要——不能拿過時或孤立的數據點設定前瞻性的政策。

“Nor should we rely on isolated data points. Trends matter most.”

貨幣是重要的：央行創造的貨幣、銀行與金融體系產生的貨幣，其對金融條件與物價的最終影響不該被忽略。

“Money matters… that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.”

平時的前瞻指引應該有限而節制，否則是以清晰之名製造模糊；對未來決策的過度承諾，會讓市場、企業與家庭誤入歧途，也綁住 Fed 自己做對決定的自由。

“In normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed. Otherwise it risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity.”

若市場主要依賴 Fed 的指引、Fed 又依賴市場價格，雙方都更容易對新變化視而不見——這是文獻所稱的「鏡廳問題」；且最大的代價往往落在沒有金融資產的人身上。

“If markets rely materially on the Fed’s guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we are all more likely to be blinded to new developments… a hall-of-mirrors problem.”

一個更安靜、溝通更有目的性的 Fed，更能達成目標；我們是否兌現職責可以被究責——那是 Fed 公信力唯一真正的考驗。

“A quieter Fed, more purposeful in its communications, is better able to meet its objectives.”

AI 是新的變數——可能是新的生產要素。兩大領先實驗室的 token 年化銷售額已破一千億美元、年增逾五倍。Fed 已成立「生產力與就業」任務小組研究，但其建議不影響當前的政策決定。

“Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago.”