日銀 9 月決議：7 比 2 升息至 1.25%，兩張反對票都主張維持

日本銀行政策委員會在今天的貨幣政策會議上，以 7 比 2 的多數決定下次會議前的操作方針：引導無擔保隔夜拆款利率維持在 1.25% 左右。新方針自 9 月 24 日起生效。

“The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.25 percent.”

配合操作方針變更，同樣以 7 比 2 決定調整各項措施的利率：補充存款機制利率（金融機構存放日銀的活期存款中，扣除法定準備的部分）為 1.25%；補充貸款機制下的基準貸款利率為 1.5%，基準貼現率同為 1.5%（票據貼現目前暫停）。

“The interest rate applied to the complementary deposit facility (the interest rate applied to current account balances held by financial institutions at the Bank, excluding required reserve balances) will be 1.25 percent.”

另以全票通過，把支援氣候變遷因應融資的資金供給操作改為浮動利率並設定貸款上限；災區金融機構支援操作與共同擔保資金供給操作的貸款利率也一併調整。

“the Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, to change the loan rate to a floating rate and set upper limits on the amount of loans”

贊成：總裁植田和男、副總裁冰見野良三與內田真一，審議委員高田創、田村直樹、小枝淳子、增一行。反對：審議委員淺田統一郎、佐藤綾野。

“Voting for the action: UEDA Kazuo, HIMINO Ryozo, UCHIDA Shinichi, TAKATA Hajime, TAMURA Naoki, KOEDA Junko, and MASU Kazuyuki. Voting against the action: ASADA Toichiro and SATO Ayano.”

淺田統一郎的反對理由：核心 CPI 年增率近來低於 2%，不一定能說經濟情勢強勁，因此希望維持操作方針。

“with the rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) being below 2 percent recently, it could not necessarily be said that the economic situation was strong”

佐藤綾野的反對理由：目前的經濟與物價情勢看起來並沒有比之前明顯加速，在這個情況下，此時升息並不適當。

“current economic and price developments did not appear to have substantially accelerated compared to before, and in this context, it was not appropriate for the Bank to raise the policy interest rate at this time.”

物價方面，生產者物價年增率持續偏高，反映 AI 相關需求擴張、原油高價與日圓貶值；核心 CPI 年增率近來溫和上升，因為企業間交易的漲價壓力開始傳到消費者物價，把加薪轉嫁到售價的動作也持續。中長期通膨預期持續上升，基礎通膨接近 2%。

“medium- to long-term inflation expectations have continued to rise, and underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent.”

聲明判斷日本的經濟與物價大致照 2026 年 7 月展望報告的基準情境發展。風險方面，要留意中東情勢、AI 需求擴張與匯率變動的影響；基礎通膨則有向上偏離、超過 2% 目標的風險，因為企業調薪調價的行為更積極，中長期通膨預期也在上升。

“there is a risk that it will deviate upward to a level above the price stability target of 2 percent”

金融情勢仍屬寬鬆：短中期實質利率維持低檔，企業資金需求增加，金融機構放款態度積極，商業本票與公司債發行條件良好。基於上述，日銀判斷適合調整寬鬆程度；升息後金融情勢預期仍維持寬鬆，繼續支撐經濟活動。

“Accommodative financial conditions are expected to be maintained after the change in the policy interest rate, continuing to firmly support economic activity.”

基礎通膨接近 2%、金融情勢寬鬆，日銀將依經濟、物價與金融情勢，持續升息、調整寬鬆程度；時點與步調要一邊檢視基準情境能否實現與展望風險（含中東情勢、AI 需求擴張與匯率），一邊考量。

“the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions.”

聲明特別寫出：為了避免基礎通膨超過 2% 目標、之後反過來傷害經濟，讓基礎通膨穩定在 2% 左右這個角度變得重要。

“the perspective of stabilizing underlying CPI inflation at a level around 2 percent becomes important”

現況：全球 AI 相關需求穩健增加，出口與工業生產開始溫和增加，企業獲利維持高檔；設備投資溫和增加但受營建成本上升影響；民間消費在就業與所得改善下具韌性，家庭信心則偏弱；住宅投資呈下降趨勢，勞動市場持續吃緊。

“Against the backdrop of factors such as a solid increase in global AI-related demand, exports and industrial production have started to increase, albeit moderately, and corporate profits have been at high levels.”

物價現況：雖有政府減輕家庭能源負擔的措施，核心 CPI 年增率近來溫和上升，落在 1.5% 到 2.0% 之間。

“the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been moderately rising recently, being in the range of 1.5-2.0 percent”

展望：經濟將持續溫和成長但先減速——春季以來中東情勢推高油價會壓低景氣，政府措施、寬鬆的金融情勢與 AI 需求則提供支撐；日銀預期之後隨高油價的影響消退，成長率會溫和回升。

“Japan's economy is expected to continue growing moderately, albeit at a decelerated rate.”

核心 CPI 年增率預期自 2026 年度下半年起加速到明顯高於 2%，推力是油價、AI 需求帶動的半導體等價格上漲與日圓貶值；之後隨油價效應消退，在展望期間後半回落到 2% 左右。年度指日本會計年度（4 月至翌年 3 月）。

“The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to accelerate to a level clearly above 2 percent from the second half of fiscal 2026.”

物價展望這段有兩位審議委員不同意：高田創認為包括基礎通膨在內的 CPI 漲幅已大致達到目標；田村直樹認為基礎通膨已處於大致符合目標的水準。

“Takata Hajime opposed the description regarding the outlook for prices, considering that the level of the rate of increase in the CPI, including underlying CPI inflation, already had generally reached the price stability target.”