央行 6 月理監事會議事錄：13 比 2 維持利率，同一組物價數字讀出兩種結論

理事會表決同意重貼現率、擔保放款融通利率及短期融通利率分別維持 2%、2.375% 與 4.25%。央行在會議中列出的考量有三點：國內通膨展望仍屬溫和、全年經濟成長動能穩健，以及要審慎因應全球前景的不確定性與中東衝突對國內物價、經濟的可能影響。

“The board directors decided to keep the discount rate, the rate on refinancing of secured loans, and the rate on temporary accommodations unchanged at 2%, 2.375%, and 4.25%, respectively.”

成長方面，第 1 季經濟成長優於預期，央行預期下半年出口與民間投資延續，將全年經濟成長率預測上修到 9.45%，其中淨外需與資本形成合計貢獻 7.33 個百分點。國內外主要機構的預測介於 5.64% 到 10.30%，平均 8.81%。

“The Bank has revised up its forecast for this year's economic growth rate to 9.45%.”

物價方面，1 至 5 月平均 CPI 年增率 1.52%、核心 CPI 1.96%，服務類價格年增 2.30%，高於商品類的 0.69%。考量國際油價預測上修、進口物價上揚與服務類通膨轉升，但也計入政府穩定物價措施的效果，央行把全年 CPI 與核心 CPI 預測略上修為 1.91% 與 1.90%。

“the Bank has adjusted its annual forecasts for the 2026 CPI and core CPI annual growth rates slightly upward to 1.91% and 1.90%.”

有理事表示利率不宜再按兵不動，現在是升息的適當時機：5 月 CPI 年增率與央行預估的 6 月值都超過 2%，而更能反映中長期趨勢的核心物價，其領先指標構成項目已經轉升。

“One board director stated that it would no longer be appropriate for the policy rates to remain unchanged and now would be a suitable time for a rate hike.”

同一段發言接著說，貨幣政策效果有落後時間，在通膨壓力已經出現時升息，對壓住通膨預期較有效；長天期利率上揚、長短期利差擴大，也要留意市場通膨預期是否在變。另外，1 至 3 月實質總薪資負成長產業的受僱人數高於去年同期。

“Given the lag in monetary policy transmission and considering current inflationary pressures, a rate hike at this juncture could prove more effective in anchoring inflation expectations.”

另一位理事也認為這是讓貨幣政策正常化的時機：央行預估 6 月之後及全年 CPI 年增率都在 2% 以上，油價仍高、PPI 年增率持續上升，而研究顯示 PPI 是油價轉嫁到 CPI 最主要的管道。通膨再度走高後，台灣 1 年期定存實質利率已轉為負值。

“Moreover, as inflation rose again, the real interest rate on Taiwan's one-year time deposits turned negative, pointing to a potentially overly loose policy stance.”

有理事把通膨壓力拆成兩個來源：供給面的成本推升，與需求面的拉動。若壓力來自供給面，央行的利率工具效果較受限，由行政部門採取供給面措施比較能有效減緩。主要機構對今年台灣通膨的預測多在 2% 以下，且預期明年油價下跌、通膨再降。

“When driven by supply-side factors, monetary policy is less effective, while supply-side measures by the government can better ease such pressure.”

同一位理事回應實質利率的論點：自 2021 年以來，主要經濟體的 1 年期定存實質利率多為負值，而台灣目前的水準仍高於瑞士、南韓、歐元區、美國與日本。

“Taiwan's current real interest rate remains higher than that of major economies such as Switzerland, South Korea, the euro area, the U.S., and Japan, and is therefore not particularly low.”

另一位理事指出，這一波成長主要靠國外需求而非內需，通膨壓力主要來自供給面，政府能源價格平穩機制吸收了大部分油價漲幅，日本與南韓也用壓低油價的方式因應。面對供給衝擊造成的通膨，貨幣政策對物價的影響相對有限，對經濟的影響卻可能更明顯。

“In the face of inflation caused by supply-side shocks, the effectiveness of monetary policy on prices is relatively limited, but its impact on the economy could be more pronounced”

還有理事以油價假設說明：央行 6 月把全年油價設在每桶 90 美元、CPI 預測升到 1.91%，而外界對明年油價的預測多在 80 美元以下，對明年台灣 CPI 的預測也多在 2% 以下。央行利率政策看的是中長期 CPI 走勢，未來一年的通膨仍在可容忍範圍，因此維持利率可以接受。

“Given that the Bank's interest rate policy is guided by medium- to long-term trends of the CPI inflation rate, and that current data indicate an inflation outlook over the coming year within a tolerable range, holding the policy rate steady is acceptable.”

數位理事表示仍須持續關注通膨與民眾的通膨預期。其中一位認為目前沒有必須調整利率的理由，但國際政經、天候與油價等不確定因素仍在，通膨壓力未消，若中東衝突再起，通膨問題會更棘手。

“Given the lingering inflationary pressures, a resurgent Middle East conflict could further complicate the inflation outlook.”

另一位理事認為，政府穩定物價的措施長期仍須回歸市場機制，油價逐步回落也會在幾個月後影響物價；因此即使這次維持利率，央行仍須對外傳達抑制通膨的決心。

“The director stressed the need for the Bank, while keeping the rates unchanged this time, to communicate its determination to contain inflation so as to anchor inflation expectations.”

也有理事提醒，美伊簽署合作備忘錄後國際油價雖然下跌，但全球能源供給要恢復到戰前的滿載狀態並非一蹴可幾，國內通膨回到合理水準仍需要時間，未來走勢要再觀察一段時間才能確認。

“Given that a myriad of uncertainties continue to cloud inflation, a period of observation will be needed to confirm its trajectory.”

多位理事關注 AI 帶動高成長、產業發展與所得卻不均的問題。其中一位說，今年的成長是多年來罕見的高成長，但果實在不同產業與族群之間分布不均，AI 相關產業受益明顯，低所得族群難以分享。

“While AI-related industries have benefited more significantly, low-income groups have found it difficult to partake in the gains.”

另一位理事指出，民間消費自去年第 3 季起增溫，工業及服務業受僱員工實質經常性薪資也是正成長，但近 70% 受僱員工的名目經常性薪資低於平均數；因此若此時升息，低所得家庭承受的壓力會比較大。

“Therefore, should the Bank raise interest rates at this juncture, low-income households would bear a disproportionately heavy burden.”

也有理事描述目前的結構是外需優於內需，外需之中 AI 產業又優於非 AI 產業；貨幣政策是以整體經濟為考量的總體工具，任何利率調整都應審慎評估對不同產業與族群的影響。

“As monetary policy is a macro-level tool formulated with consideration for the overall economy, any adjustment to the policy rate levels should be carefully assessed for its impact on different industries and demographic groups.”

議事錄的金融情勢段落指出，全體銀行不動產貸款集中度由 2024 年 6 月底的 37.61% 降到今年 5 月底的 35.17%，但下降主因是分母（其他放款）增幅大於不動產貸款餘額，而其他放款之中，與股市相關的信用擴張明顯。

“notably, stock market credit expansion within these other loans was pronounced.”

兩位理事關注股市信用持續擴張的影響：一位提醒，若以不動產抵押貸款投入股票的情況持續擴大，可能威脅金融穩定，宜思考總體審慎監理措施；另一位認為民眾過度投入股市，未來一旦明顯反轉，衝擊不容忽視。

“if the activity of using real estate mortgage loans to fund equity investment continues to expand, it could pose a threat to financial stability; relevant macroprudential measures should be considered.”

房市方面，多位理事認為目前量縮價穩、選擇性信用管制成效逐漸顯現，暫無新增或鬆綁的必要。有理事特別提到，若台股交易降溫，理財週轉金放款需求下降，部分資金可能轉向不動產，進一步推升房價，須密切觀察。

“if trading in the domestic stock market cools down, demand for related personal working capital loans for financial planning would likely decline, and some of these funds could flow into the real estate market instead, potentially pushing housing prices up further”