FOMC 7 月會議紀錄：9 比 3 維持利率，三票主張升息 1 碼

委員會決定把聯邦資金利率目標區間維持在 3.50% 到 3.75%，並延續維持銀行體系準備金充足的政策。理事會同步把準備金利率維持在 3.65%。

“The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.”

聲明對通膨的描述是：通膨相對 2% 目標仍然偏高，部分反映能源等特定部門的供給衝擊推升價格；並保留 6 月加入的「委員會將實現物價穩定」。紀錄記載，幾乎所有委員都同意保留這句話。

“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

投反對票的三位是 Hammack、Kashkari 與 Logan，三人都主張當次把目標區間調升 1 碼。

“Voting against this action: Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.”

數位與會者主張當次升息 1 碼。這些與會者表示物價壓力看起來已經廣泛擴散，委員會應採取更緊的政策立場，才能持續達成物價穩定與充分就業的目標。

“These participants remarked that price pressures appeared broad based and judged that the Committee should adopt a more restrictive policy stance”

紀錄未註明以下發言者的投票立場：部分與會者指出，即使剔除受關稅與能源價格影響最直接的品項，基礎通膨看起來仍然偏高；也有部分與會者提到，核心服務（不含住房）的漲幅仍高。

“Some participants noted that, even after excluding prices of items most directly affected by tariffs and energy prices, underlying inflation appeared to be elevated.”

主張升息的與會者之中，少數幾位認為現在調升，可能有助於避免日後得用更陡、代價可能更高的一連串緊縮。另有部分與會者認為，目前的金融情勢可能還不夠緊，不足以讓通膨回到 2%。

“doing so would likely help forestall the need for a steeper and potentially more costly sequence of tightening moves at a later stage.”

多數與會者支持維持目前的目標區間，普遍認為兩次會議之間累積的資訊，能讓通膨前景更清楚、不確定性相應降低。

“Participants generally thought that the information that would accumulate in the intermeeting period could provide more clarity, and correspondingly reduce uncertainty, about the inflation outlook.”

紀錄未註明以下發言者的投票立場：多數與會者預期，隨著關稅與先前能源漲價的效果消退，今年剩下的時間通膨會逐步下降；數位與會者評估，過去關稅調升轉嫁到物價水準大致已經完成，近期新宣布的關稅對通膨數字的影響應該有限。

“Several participants assessed that the pass-through of past increases in tariffs into the level of prices was now largely complete”

不同與會者提到，會議期間金融情勢已經收緊，部分原因是經濟成長強勁，以及市場預期委員會不久後就會轉向更緊的立場——換言之，市場定價已經先替政策做了一部分緊縮。

“Various participants suggested that financial conditions had tightened over the intermeeting period and that this development was partly a reflection of strong economic growth and market expectations that the Committee would adopt a more restrictive policy stance before long.”

許多與會者評估，如果通膨沒有下降，緊縮政策很可能是必要的。

“Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.”

許多與會者強調，通膨連續數年高於 2% 之後，若持續偏高，可能開始影響通膨預期，以及企業與勞工的薪資、定價決策。

“after several years of inflation above 2 percent, continued elevated inflation rates could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage- and price-setting decisions.”

數位與會者也提到，近幾年接連出現的供給衝擊，一再推遲通膨回到 2% 的預期時間，加深了對通膨黏著的疑慮。

“Several participants remarked that successive supply shocks have repeatedly delayed the expected return of inflation to 2 percent in recent years”

數位與會者認為，AI 建置對消費者物價的影響目前只出現在少數類別；但另有數位與會者認為，AI 投資已經透過推升總需求，對物價產生更廣泛的影響，或很快就會。紀錄也提到資料中心用的晶片、鋼材，以及手機、電腦設備、軟體與電力都出現價格壓力。

“However, several other participants viewed investment in AI as already having broader effects on prices by pushing up aggregate demand or assessed that it would likely do so relatively soon.”

另一面，部分與會者指出，採用 AI 帶來的生產力提升，終究會降低生產成本、擴大總供給，對通膨形成下壓力量；至於要多久才看得到，看法分歧。

“Some participants noted that productivity gains associated with adoption of AI would eventually reduce production costs and increase aggregate supply”

就業方面，數位與會者觀察到，擔心 AI 造成大規模裁員的情況至今沒有發生；與 AI 建置相關的產業對電工、機械工與工程師需求強勁，薪資明顯上升。風險面則有數位與會者討論到，若 AI 發展不如預期，可能引發股價大幅重新定價，進而拖累消費。

“Several participants discussed, as a downside risk, the possibility that AI developments could disappoint, leading to a significant repricing of stocks, with consequent negative effects on consumer spending.”

幕僚評估資產評價壓力偏高：股權風險溢酬（以長期利率調整後的預估盈餘殖利率）所處的水準，近代只有網路泡沫期間更低。

“The equity premium—the forward earnings-to-price ratio adjusted for the level of long-term interest rates—was at a level that has only been lower in recent history during the dot-com bubble.”

少數幾位與會者特別提到，AI 產業的資本支出愈來愈多靠借貸支應，資金來源包括非銀行投資人與區域銀行；幕僚同時指出，對沖基金槓桿在各類策略都接近歷史高點。

“A few participants highlighted the increased degree to which capital spending in the AI sector was being financed by borrowing, including credit provided by nonbank investors or regional banks.”

會議期間的國際市場回顧提到，南韓與台灣股市因市場擔心半導體公司評價而明顯下跌，其他地區股市整體變動不大。

“Equity indexes in South Korea and Taiwan dropped notably, driven by concerns about semiconductor company valuations”

市場定價方面，會議當時投資人的基本情境是 7 月不動，但反映約三分之一的升息機率；往後看，市場已完全反映 9 月會議前升息 1 碼、明年第一季底前再升一次。紐約聯邦準備銀行市場調查的中位數受訪者則預期今明兩年利率不變。

“At longer horizons, the market was fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by the September meeting and another one by the end of the first quarter of next year.”