FININFOSTATION情報
全站目錄

2026 US Midterm Elections: Race Calls, Certification and What Comes Next

Called

AP has called the majority in both chambers. PBS NewsHour published the AP stories on Nov 4, Taipei time, and AP may have made the calls earlier. An AP race call is a news organization's declaration, not official certification. States are certifying results on their own legal deadlines, and each chamber is the judge of its own members' elections.[1][2][17][8]

Last reviewed: Nov 5 (Thu) 4:55 PM Taipei / Nov 5 (Thu) 3:55 AM ETPage generated: Nov 6 (Fri) 1:19 AM Taipei

Read in Traditional Chinese

Results

SenateDemocratic majorityAP race call: no later than Nov 4 (Wed) Taipei / Nov 3 (Tue) New York[1]Method: The date is when PBS published the AP story; AP may have made the call earlierMajority before the election: Republicans (per the AP story)[2]35 seats were on the ballot, including special elections in Florida and Ohio (terms end Jan 3, 2029)[6]
HouseDemocratic majorityAP race call: no later than Nov 4 (Wed) Taipei / Nov 4 (Wed) New York[2]Method: The date is when PBS published the AP story; AP may have made the call earlierMajority before the election: Republicans (per the AP story)[2]All 435 seats were on the ballot; 218 is a majority when every seat is filled (our arithmetic from 435)[5]
SourcesSource: 19 cited sources (see Sources and method)Updated: Updated when calls or dates changeNeutral reference only, not investment advice

Race calls and certification: who decides, and where things stand

A news organization's race call, a state's certification and Congress's own judgment are three separate steps; this table lists them one by one.

Senate majority

Who decides
AP (a news organization's call)
Status
Called: Democrats
Date
no later than Nov 4 (Wed) Taipei / Nov 3 (Tue) New York
Source
[1]

House majority

Who decides
AP (a news organization's call)
Status
Called: Democrats
Date
no later than Nov 4 (Wed) Taipei / Nov 4 (Wed) New York
Source
[2]

Individual races

Who decides
AP, race by race
Status
In its Nov 4 update, the AP House story reprinted by PBS NewsHour still listed the Senate races in Alaska and Michigan as outstanding: a called majority does not mean every seat has been called. This page does not show seat counts.
Date
No fixed completion date (this page does not estimate one)
Source
[2]

Counting mail ballots (background)

Who decides
State law
Status
About 30 states count at least some mail ballots sent by Election Day but received afterward (as described in a Supreme Court opinion). This is background shown alongside; it is not offered as the reason the two Senate races above were outstanding.
Date
Receipt deadlines follow each state's law (not listed state by state here)
Source
[18]

State certification

Who decides
State election officials
Status
Under way, on each state's legal deadline
Date
From our state-by-state reading of the NASS summary: among states that set a number of days, deadlines run from about one week to about six and a half weeks after the election (states without a set number of days are not included); New York's is Dec 15 at the latest
Source
[17]

Final judge of elections and qualifications

Who decides
Each chamber, for its own members (Article I, Section 5)
Status
Handled by each chamber once the new Congress's term begins
Date
Jan 3 (Sun) 12:00 PM ET / Jan 4 (Mon) 1:00 AM Taipei
Source
[8][9]

Method: An AP race call is a news organization's declaration, not official certification. Call dates are the times PBS NewsHour published the AP stories, and AP may have made the calls earlier, so we say "no later than"; we give the date only, not the minute, because we could not access AP's own site. The range of state deadlines is our state-by-state reading of the National Association of Secretaries of State's October 2024 summary and counts only states that set a number of days; if a state changed its law for 2026, the state's own notice prevails.

After the election: four items in Congress's hands

Four items that need Congress or already have a legal date, with the current record and the next date for each.

Stopgap funding

Current record
The fiscal 2027 continuing resolution (Division A of Public Law 119-103, H.R. 6500, signed Sept 2, 2026) provides stopgap funding through Dec 11, 2026
Next date
Dec 11 (Fri), New York date
Source
[10]

Tax law: advanced manufacturing investment credit (26 U.S.C. §48D)

Current record
Section 70308 of Public Law 119-21 raised the credit from 25% to 35% for property placed in service after Dec 31, 2025; property whose construction begins after Dec 31, 2026 does not qualify
Next date
Dec 31 (Thu), New York date
Source
[11][12]

Tariff authority

Current record
In Learning Resources v. Trump (No. 24-1287, Feb 20, 2026), the Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. The Congressional Research Service reports that since the ruling the President has cited four tariff authorities in three laws: Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, and Sections 122 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The Section 122 tariffs expired on July 24, 2026
Next date
No legal date is currently scheduled (checked Oct 29)
Source
[13][14]

Crypto market structure bill (H.R. 3633)

Current record
The House passed it 294–134 on July 17, 2025. On Sept 15, 2026, a Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed failed 49–50 (Roll Call Vote 234). Cloture requires three-fifths of senators duly chosen and sworn (our arithmetic: 60 when all 100 seats are filled)
Next date
No vote is currently scheduled (checked Oct 29)
Source
[15][16]

Method: "Next date" lists only legal or announced dates; it does not speculate on whether or when Congress will act.

Timeline

3Nov · TueNew York date
Past Election Day, listed by the Federal Election Commission as the regularly scheduled federal general election
[4]
4Nov · WedTaipei
Past AP calls the Senate majority (date from the PBS reprint; date only)
no later than Nov 4 (Wed) Taipei / Nov 3 (Tue) New York[1]
4Nov · WedTaipei
Past AP calls the House majority (date from the PBS reprint; date only)
no later than Nov 4 (Wed) Taipei / Nov 4 (Wed) New York[2]
1Dec · TueNew York date
Georgia Senate race: runoff date if no candidate won a majority in the first round
Condition: Whether it happens depends on the Georgia Secretary of State's announcement, which this page has not reviewed[7]
10Dec · ThuTaipei
Federal Reserve rate decision (Dec 8–9 meeting)
Dec 9 (Wed) 2:00 PM ET / Dec 10 (Thu) 3:00 AM Taipei[19]
11Dec · FriNew York date
Fiscal 2027 stopgap funding expires
[10]
31Dec · ThuNew York date
Property whose construction begins after this date does not qualify for the §48D credit
[12]
4Jan · MonTaipei
Terms of the 120th Congress begin (per the Twentieth Amendment); AP reports the House speaker election is set for the same day
Jan 3 (Sun) 12:00 PM ET / Jan 4 (Mon) 1:00 AM Taipei[9][3]

Subscribe to the calendar (includes the congressional and election dates on this page)Download .ics

Markets

Market figures are shown side by side for reference only and do not imply any causal link to the election; each cell has its own data date.

S&P 500 futures
7,703.5
▼ 0.22%
Data date Nov 5 (Thu)
Nasdaq-100 futures
28,210.5
▼ 1.25%
Data date Nov 5 (Thu)
US 10-year Treasury yield
4.90%
▼ 5 bp
Nov 4 (Wed) close
US Dollar Index
101.25
▼ 0.26%
Data date Nov 5 (Thu)
Bitcoin
$80,503
▲ 3.62%·24h
Updated Nov 5 (Thu) 2:26 PM Taipei

Market data sources: S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq-100 futures, US Dollar Index: Yahoo Finance (delayed quotes, single source); US 10-year Treasury yield: U.S. Treasury daily yield curve (FRED as backup); Bitcoin: CoinGecko public market data (Powered by CoinGecko)

Our videos

These videos are in Traditional Chinese.

Institutional views

These pages are in Traditional Chinese.

  • Fidelity Investments 2026-10-26 · Historical statistics · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • Brookings Institution 2026-10-22 · Scenario analysis · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • Desjardins Economic Studies 2026-10-14 · Scenario analysis · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • J.P. Morgan Asset Management 2026-10-08 · Scenario analysis · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • BlackRock 2026-10-01 · Historical statistics · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • RBC Phillips, Hager & North Investment Counsel 2026-09-16 · Historical statistics · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • Lombard Odier 2026-09-08 · Scenario analysis · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • Capital Group 2026-01-26 · Historical statistics · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
  • University of Canterbury 2023-05-19 · Historical statistics · published before the vote · the institution's view, not ours
CalendarViews: US politics and policyVideosMacroBondsGlobal indices

Not shown here

  • Seat counts for either chamber: The AP stories we cite do not give seat totals for either chamber, and we have no licensed race-by-race data, so we neither show nor estimate seat counts.
  • National vote share: We have no licensed source for a national vote tally.
  • District maps, featured races and battleground lists: These need licensed race-by-race data, and because we use neither polls nor forecasts we do not pick featured or battleground races.
  • California's certification deadline and Louisiana's runoff: We have not yet obtained the 2026 official documents for these two items, so they are not listed; the calls and certification table above gives the overall range of state deadlines.

Sources and method

  1. PBS NewsHour (AP story): AP call on the Senate majority
    Published 2026-11-03 · Accessed 2026-11-05 · Grade C news reprint · Reprinted by PBS NewsHour Original
  2. PBS NewsHour (AP story): AP call on the House majority
    Published 2026-11-04 · Accessed 2026-11-05 · Grade C news reprint · Reprinted by PBS NewsHour Original
  3. PBS NewsHour (AP story): Date of the House speaker election
    Published 2026-11-04 · Accessed 2026-11-05 · Grade C news reprint · Reprinted by PBS NewsHour Original
  4. Federal Election Commission: Election and voting information page (lists Nov 3, 2026 as the regularly scheduled federal general election)
    Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  5. USA.gov: Midterm elections explainer (all 435 House seats are up)
    Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  6. Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives: Nominations for the 120th Congress
    Published 2026-10-08 · Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  7. Georgia.gov: Notice on the runoff absentee ballot request deadline (gives Dec 1, 2026 as the general election runoff date)
    Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  8. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School (U.S. Constitution): U.S. Constitution, Article I, Section 5: each chamber judges the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members
    Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  9. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School (U.S. Constitution): Twentieth Amendment: congressional terms end and begin at noon on Jan 3
    Accessed 2026-11-05 · Grade A primary Original
  10. Congressional Research Service (EveryCRSReport mirror): R49353: overview of fiscal 2027 continuing appropriations
    Published 2026-09-17 · Accessed 2026-11-05 · Grade B official mirror or compilation Original
  11. Congressional Research Service: R48611: summary of the tax provisions in Public Law 119-21
    Published 2025-07-29 · Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  12. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School (U.S. Code): 26 U.S.C. §48D (advanced manufacturing investment credit)
    Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  13. Supreme Court of the United States: Opinion in No. 24-1287: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize tariffs
    Published 2026-02-20 · Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  14. Congressional Research Service (EveryCRSReport mirror): R49481: tariff actions after the ruling (tables as of Sept 30)
    Published 2026-10-08 · Accessed 2026-11-05 · Grade B official mirror or compilation Original
  15. U.S. Government Publishing Office (GovInfo): Bill status for H.R. 3633 (machine-readable file, updated Sept 17, 2026)
    Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  16. U.S. Government Publishing Office (GovInfo): Senate Rule XXII (Senate Manual, 113th Congress edition)
    Accessed 2026-10-29 · Grade A primary Original
  17. National Association of Secretaries of State: State canvass deadlines and recount thresholds (October 2024 edition)
    Accessed 2026-10-30 · Grade B official mirror or compilation Original
  18. Supreme Court of the United States: Opinion in Watson v. RNC (citing a National Conference of State Legislatures table)
    Published 2026-06-29 · Accessed 2026-10-30 · Grade B official mirror or compilation Original
  19. Federal Reserve Board: FOMC 2026 meeting calendar
    Accessed 2026-08-29 · Grade A primary Original